A Comparison of USDA's Agricultural Export Forecasts with ARIMA-based Forecasts

This study indicates that a number of USDA forecasts lack information that is readily available from monthly U.S. export data. This is determined by comparing the accuracy USDA’s FY2001-04 forecasts with forecasts based on trends for each commodity. ARIMA models utilizing the monthly data available at the time each USDA forecast was published were estimated. Out of 24 separate commodity forecasts examined, USDA forecasts were superior to ARIMA forecast in only 9 cases. ARIMA forecasts were superior in 11 cases, and there was no difference in 4 cases.