A COVID-19 stress test for life insurance: insights into the effectiveness of different risk mitigation strategies

COVID-19 has affected mortality rates and financial markets worldwide. Against this background, we perform a COVID-19 stress test for life insurance, considering a joint financial and mortality shock, to evaluate the effectiveness of different risk mitigation strategies. Specifically, we conduct a model-based simulation analysis of a life insurer selling annuities and term life insurances. The analysis includes stress scenarios that are calibrated to observations during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider new business and study the risk situation under three different risk mitigation strategies observed in practice as an immediate response to the pandemic: stopping sales, increasing premiums, or adjusting investment strategies. Results show that a life insurer's risk situation is mainly affected in the short term, selling annuities (in addition to term life insurance) immunizes against the mortality shock, and the immediate use of risk mitigation strategies can help reduce the negative impact.