A dynamic assessment based feasibility study of concentrating solar power in China

The technology of concentrating solar power (CSP) is a potential way to meet the increasing demand of electricity consumption and environmental sustainability. However, it is still difficult to determine the installed locations of CSP systems, electricity generation by the systems, and the cost of CSP electricity in China. After a comprehensive geographic assessment, this study analyzes the technical and economic feasibility of 100 MW CSP systems to investigate the development potential of three types of CSP systems (i.e. parabolic trough system, tower system and dish Stirling system) under Chinese conditions in the period of 2010–2050. Based on the geographic assessment in terms of solar resource, land resource, water resource and power grid analysis, six locations are selected as the representative sites of each potential region for installing CSP systems. The performance analysis is further carried out, and the results show that the six representative locations are suitable for installing CSP systems because the higher solar-to-electricity efficiency can be generated compared to the average one of CSP systems. Due to the high time dependency of the cost of CSP electricity, a dynamic assessment based on feasibility analysis method is applied to study the economic performances of CSP systems based on the predictions of CSP cumulative installed capacity in four scenarios proposed by International Energy Agency (IEA). It is found that the grid parities of parabolic trough system and tower system will be achieved as early as the next 10–20 years for the selected locations. The integration analysis of geographic assessment, technical and economic feasibility demonstrates that China has sufficient potential for the utilization of parabolic trough system and tower system.