A dynamical systems approach to modeling human development

Shyam Ranganathan, Ranjula Bali Swain and David J.T. Sumpter

A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.

MoreLess

Year of publication:	2014
Authors:	Ranganathan, Shyam ; Swain, Ranjula Bali ; Sumpter, David J. T.
Publisher:	Uppsala : Uppsala Univ., Dep. of Economics
Subject:	Demographic transition \| Human Development \| dynamical systems \| Bayesian \| data-driven \| GDP \| child mortality \| fertility rate \| Fertilität \| Fertility \| Kindersterblichkeit \| Child mortality \| Sterblichkeit \| Mortality \| Demografischer Übergang \| Theorie \| Theory \| Bevölkerungsentwicklung \| Demographic development \| Entwicklungsindikator \| Development indicator \| Nationaleinkommen \| National income \| Humankapital \| Human capital