A fuzzy inference system for predicting outbreaks in emerging infectious diseases

The world population is vulnerable to emerging and possibly re-emerging infectious diseases. Climate change, globalization, increased travelling, and urbanization are dynamic factors behind disease emergence and reemergence. This study formulates and analyzes a model with five inputs, viz. Change of Landscape (CoL), Gateway of Travel (GoT), Hygiene, Sanitization, Housing (HSH), Health Infrastructure (HI), and Regularity of Surveillance (RoS) and one output, viz. Possibility of Outbreak to determine the effect of these variables on disease emergence using a Mamdani fuzzy inference system. We study the impact of these factors on disease emergence and the possibility of an outbreak in a particular region.