A GIS-based irregular cellular automata model of land-use change

This study proposes an alternative cellular automata (CA) model, which relaxes the traditional CA regular square grid and synchronous growth, and is designed for representations of land-use change in rural – urban fringe settings. The model uses high-resolution spatial data in the form of irregularly sized and shaped land parcels, and incorporates synchronous and asynchronous development in order to model more realistically land-use change at the land parcel scale. The model allows urban planners and other stakeholders to evaluate how different subdivision designs will influence development under varying population growth rates and buyer preferences. A model prototype has been developed in a common desktop GIS and applied to a rapidly developing area of a midsized Canadian city.