A guide to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises

Over the past 15 years, the forecasting procedures and techniques used for the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections have been subject to many changes and improvements, all aimed at contributing to the monetary policy decision-making process. The projections, conditioned on a set of assumptions, combine the use of models and other tools with the knowledge and judgement of economic experts. This guide presents the organisational and procedural framework in place in 2016 for the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises, together with the associated techniques and tools. The macroeconomic projections for the euro area and for the individual euro area countries play an important role in monetary policy decision-making as a tool for bringing together, systematically, information on current and future economic developments. As such, the macroeconomic projections constitute a key element of the economic analysis of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. The outcome of the macroeconomic projection exercises conducted by Eurosystem/ECB staff is presented to the Governing Council as an input to its monetary policy deliberations. The Governing Council then makes its own overall assessment of the economic situation and outlook, as well as of the risks to medium-term price stability, using all the information available to it, including the Eurosystem/ECB staff projections.