A Kuznets curve analysis of ozone-depleting substances and the impact of the Montreal Protocol

This paper examines the relationship between countries' propensity to emit chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and income per capita. The main part of the analysis uses dynamic estimation methods on a panel of CFC production. In contrast to static analyses, we find statistically significant quadratic relationship between income and CFC production, with a critical income level in the Kuznets curve of $16,050. This reinforces the trend observed in other papers that global pollutants have higher critical income levels than local or urban pollutants. In addition, it suggests that, in the absence of any international agreement, CFC production in the poorest countries would ensure that there is a substantial rise in global production over the next 50 years. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.