A longitudinal analysis of moving desires, expectations and actual moving behaviour

Many theories of residential mobility contend that individuals express a sequence of moving desires, intentions and expectations prior to moving. Much research has investigated how individuals form these pre-move thoughts, with a largely separate literature examining actual mobility. Only a few studies have attempted to link pre-move thoughts to subsequent actual moves, but these often do not explicitly distinguish between different types and combinations of pre-move thoughts. Using 1998-2006 British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data, this study is the first to investigate whether moving desires and expectations are empirically distinct pre-move thoughts. Using multinomial regression models we demonstrate that moving desires and expectations have different meanings, and often occur in combination: the factors associated with expecting to move differ depending upon whether the move is also desired (and vice versa). Next, using panel logistic regression models, we show that different desire-expectation combinations have different effects on the probability of subsequent moving behaviour.