A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment

This paper introduces the theoretical foundations and the structure of a macroeconometric model for the analysis of compensation schemes. After a brief explanation of the main relationships between technical change and employment, the general structure of the model is outlined with reference to the objective of the analysis. The formal model illustrates a possible way of approaching, from a macroeconomic perspective, the analysis of the complex relations between technological change, trade, growth and employment dynamics. The aim is to highlight the relevance of some aspects that in the past have only received a minor treatment in mainstream contributions to the issue. In particular, the strong dependence of the results on distribution and demand is recognized. The model proposed is the extended version of a macroeconomic model previously presented by Vivarelli (1995). Modifications have both theoretical and technical relevance. Some results from an application to Italy and the United Kingdom follow a brief discussion on the techniques adopted for the econometric estimation.