A MODEL FOR PROJECTING LOCALIZED ECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND FISCAL IMPACTS OF LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS

For rural areas in which large scale industrial and resource development projects are located, the need for timely projections of the magnitude and location of economic, demographic, fiscal and other likely impacts is clearly apparent. The purpose of this paper is to describe a computerized model for projecting the effects of large scale developments on business activity, personal income, employment, population, requirements for selected public and quasi-public services, and public sector costs and revenues and to demonstrate the utility of the model for projecting local area impacts. The structure, data base, and interrelationships of each of the model's six major components are described. Its validity in simulating economic and demographic changes at regional county and municipal levels is then evaluated.