A modified boosted support vector machine to rate banks

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare the classification learning ability of our algorithm based on boosted support vector machine (B-SVM), against other classification techniques in predicting the credit ratings of banks. The key feature of this study is the usage of an imbalanced dataset (in the response variable/rating) with a smaller number of observations (number of banks). Design/methodology/approach: In general, datasets in banking sector are small and imbalanced too. In this study, 23 Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) have been chosen (in India), and their corresponding corporate ratings have been collated from the Indian subsidiary of reputed global rating agency. The top management of the rating agency provided 12 input (quantitative) variables that are considered essential for rating a bank within India. In order to overcome the challenge of dataset being imbalanced and having small number of observations, this study uses an algorithm, namely “Modified Boosted Support Vector Machines” (MBSVMs) proposed by Punniyamoorthy Murugesan and Sundar Rengasamy. This study also compares the classification ability of the aforementioned algorithm against other classification techniques such as multi-class SVM, back propagation neural networks, multi-class linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classification, on the basis of geometric mean (GM). Findings: The performances of each algorithm have been compared based on one metric—the geometric mean, also known as GMean (GM). This metric typically indicates the class-wise sensitivity by using the values of products. The findings of the study prove that the proposed MBSVM technique outperforms the other techniques. Research limitations/implications: This study provides an algorithm to predict ratings of banks where the dataset is small and imbalanced. One of the limitations of this research study is that subjective factors have not been included in our model; the sole focus is on the results generated by the models (driven by quantitative parameters). In future, studies may be conducted which may include subjective parameters (proxied by relevant and quantifiable variables). Practical implications: Various stakeholders such as investors, regulators and central banks can predict the credit ratings of banks by themselves, by inputting appropriate data to the model. Originality/value: In the process of rating banks, the usage of an imbalanced dataset can lessen the performance of the soft-computing techniques. In order to overcome this, the authors have come up with a novel classification approach based on “MBSVMs”, which can be used as a yardstick for such imbalanced datasets. For this purpose, through primary research, 12 features have been identified that are considered essential by the credit rating agencies.