A Nonparametric Dynamic Causal Model for Macroeconometrics

This paper uses potential outcome time series to provide a nonparametric framework for quantifying dynamic causal effects in macroeconometrics. This provides sufficient conditions for the nonparametric identification of dynamic causal effects as well as clarify the causal content of several common assumptions and methods in macroeconomics. Our key identifying assumption is shown to be non-anticipating treatments which enables nonparametric inference on dynamic causal effects. Next, we provide a formal definition of a "shock'' and this leads to a shocked potential outcome time series. This is a nonparametric statement of the Frisch-Slutzky paradigm. The common additional assumptions that the causal effects are additive and that the treatments are shocks place substantial restrictions on the underlying dynamic causal estimands. We use this structure to causally interpret several common estimation strategies. We provide sufficient conditions under which local projections is causally interpretable and show that the standard assumptions for local projections with an instrument are not sufficient to identify dynamic causal effects. We finally show that the structural vector moving average form is causally equivalent to a restricted potential outcome time series under the usual invertibility assumption