A Note on Gaussian Estimation of the CKLS and CIR Models with Feedback Effects for Japan
In this note we extend the Gaussian estimation of two factor CKLS and CIR models recently considered in Nowman, K. B. (2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets <Emphasis Type="Bold">8, 23–34) to include feedback effects in the conditional mean as was originally formulated in general continuous time models by Bergstrom, A. R. (1966, Non-recursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations, Econometrica <Emphasis Type="Bold">34, 173–182) with constant volatility. We use the exact discrete model of Bergstrom, A. R. (1966, Non-recursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations, Econometrica <Emphasis Type="Bold">34, 173–182) to estimate the parameters which was first used by Brennan, M. J. and Schwartz, E. S. (1979, A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds, J. Bank. Financ. <Emphasis Type="Bold">3, 133–155) to estimate their two factor interest model but incorporating the assumption of Nowman, K. B. (1997, Gaussian estimation of single-factor continuous time models of the term structure of interest rates, J. Financ. <Emphasis Type="Bold">52, 1695–1706; 2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets <Emphasis Type="Bold">8, 23–34). An application to monthly Japanese Euro currency rates indicates some evidence of feedback from the 1-year rate to the 1-month rate in both the CKLS and CIR models. We also find a low level-volatility effect supporting Nowman, K. B. (2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets <Emphasis Type="Bold">8, 23–34). Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2003
Year of publication: |
2003
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Authors: | Nowman, K. |
Published in: |
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets. - Springer, ISSN 1387-2834. - Vol. 10.2003, 2, p. 275-279
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Publisher: |
Springer |
Subject: | CKLS | feedback effects | Gaussian estimation | interest rates |
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