A Note on Polio Count: Some empirical evidence from India

Although the world wide global polio eradication program aimed at exterminating the disease by the year 2003, seven countries including India are still considered to be polio endemic. India witnessed a polio explosion during the year 2002. In recent years there is definite evidence in favor of importations of polio from these seven countries to other countries as well. Certified polio free nations also continue to face the risk of transmission until the disease is completely eradicated. Using a negative binomial model which corrects for overdispersion problem in count data, this paper examines various factors affecting the polio count in India. Expenditure on the polio eradication program which includes cost of vaccination and the other related costs has a significantly negative impact on polio counts as expected. The paper calculates the expenditure elasticity of polio count which is important from the point of view of policy making.