A poisson autoregressive model to understand COVID-19 contagion dynamics

We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.

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Year of publication:	2020
Authors:	Agosto, Arianna ; Giudici, Paolo
Published in:	Risks. - Basel : MDPI, ISSN 2227-9091. - Vol. 8.2020, 3, p. 1-8
Publisher:	Basel : MDPI
Subject:	poisson autoregressive models \| contagion \| predictive monitoring

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Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Article
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.3390/risks8030077 [DOI] 1735236837 [GVK] hdl:10419/258030 [Handle]
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013200610