A Quick Estimate the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)

Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COVID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Such estimates assume that the containment and preventive actions continue unabated. We also provide an upper bound to the final cases and deaths that are likely. Right now (with data up to April 1) the projections for Korea, China, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, UK have been made. We hope to update the same in due course as the disease progresses. In the UK the deaths are bound to increase, and in Italy the cases could rise further. For the world as a whole, the model for cases is just beginning to be meaningful. The forecast is about 1.25 million cases, with a maximum of 3.4 million, when the cases as on 1st April stood at 0.85 million. Deaths for the world are forecast (with little confidence) at 72000 with an upper bound of 227,000, while the deaths till 1st April have been 41,887