A Regional, Multi-Sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of ClimateAnd Socio-Economic Change In The Uk: Part I. Methodology

Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessmentswhich produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climatechange. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Angliaand North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated localand regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change(agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structurefor linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5x5 km grid was chosen fornumerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, asa compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10x10 km) and the detailedspatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodologicalissues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoralmodelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, errorpropagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportabilityas well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options toclimate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insightswhich will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.