A review of global scenario exercises for food security analysis: Assumptions and results

The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implications for global food security. In total nine major global scenario studies, published between 2000 and 2012, are covered. Four out of the nine studies focus explicitly on agriculture and the food system. Four others have a broader or different perspective (e.g. climate change, environment and ecosystems) but nonetheless include elements that are relevant for food security analysis. This study finds that all of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, while food utilisation and stability are hardly covered. It is argued that the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are currently being developed as input to the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, might be a relevant starting point for new global scenarios for the analysis of food security issues.