A scenario approach for assessing new business concepts

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine challenges in the front end of innovation (FEI) and to propose a scenario‐based approach to alleviate some of these problems, particularly as regards uncertainty in opportunity recognition. Design/methodology/approach – The paper answers the main research question through a literature review and a case study. The paper employs the design‐oriented approach to propose an artifact which solves the underlined problem, and validate the artifact through the case study. Findings – According to the literature review, scenarios should offer a viable method for opportunity recognition. The case study supports the theoretical proposition, and suggests that scenarios can be used to alleviate the effect of uncertainty in the FEI. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results are limited to the level of proof‐of‐concept. The scenario process as such was rated positively, which corresponds to the theory and previous similar experiments, but the benefits of the scenario approach have yet to be verified. Practical implications are a novel method for finding and assessing new business concepts. Originality/value – The main contribution of this paper is the formed process artifact to alleviate the challenges in the FEI. The scenario approach can be used to probe the near future for business development purposes.