A Simulation-Based Analysis of Electricity Access in Uganda

Access to power is tied to a country's development. It facilitates improved social welfare, education, health and income generating opportunities. Uganda's economy is stifled by its low electrification rates - 16% nationally. This study builds a working theory on the internal setup of Uganda's power sector utilizing this theory to surface influential behavior modes as they pertain to power generation and supply and how these ultimately affect electricity access. Based on this working theory a System Dynamics simulation model is built. The model simulations show how Uganda's power sector is expected to evolve over 80 years in terms of power supply and demand given existing market structure and prevailing conditions. The study finds major problems in the nature of power accessed specifically an insufficient and unreliable power supply. The root cause is found in the nature of the existing capacity planning process in terms of how future capacity requirements are determined and the agreements made with generators as to how and when they fulfill their investment obligations.