A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD : data requirements, model structure and calibration

The developed world stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the OECD countries will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. These two demographic trends are expected to put enormous pressure on social security systems and government expenses. To address the consequences of the aging process, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions - the U.S., the EU and Japan - which exchange goods and capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path for the three considered regions keeping current immigration constant, assuming the projected increase in life expectancy and the continuation of current social security and health care policies.