A Simultaneous Model and Empirical Test of the Demand and Supply of Retail Space

Much of the burgeoning distress of the 1990s in the United States retail space markets reflects a growing mismatch in the amount and location of retail space demand and supply. Understanding the demand and supply for retail space is critically important to academics, professionals and others associated with owning, operating and financing retail space. Using data from nineteen major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for the period 1986-95, this article develops a simultaneous model of retail space demand and supply which includes the influence of vacancy rate. The model and results provide evidence about how demand and supply for retail space respond to changes in retail sales, rental prices, land-use regulation and land availability, and the cost of capital. The results show inelastic price elasticities of demand and supply for retail space.