A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for illustrative purposes.

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Year of publication:	2015-04-09
Authors:	Ganev, Kaloyan
Institutions:	Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Subject:	business cycle \| output gap \| potential growth

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	MPRA Paper.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Classification:	E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011251882