A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling

This paper discusses the ?structural cointegrating VAR? approach to macroeconometric modelling and compares it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely, the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The structural co- integrating VAR approach has the attractive features that the estimated long-run relationships embedded in the model are theory consistent, and have a clear economic interpretation, and yet the short-run dynamics are flexibly estimated within a VAR framework. The approach is illustrated using a small quarterly macroeconomic model of the UK, and its use in impulse response analysis and probability forcasting is discussed.