A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core in- flation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an u0093idealu0094 core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures.