A system dynamics model for simulating the logistics demand dynamics of metropolitans : a case study of Beijing, China

Purpose: We attempted to propose an approach to simulate the dynamics of Beijing's logistics demand, which can do some help to find out the dynamics path of the needed storage and shipment, put forward with logistics policies and enhance logistics service. Design/methodology/approach: We present a paper with system dynamics (SD) methodology, which was run by the software of Vensim®. Findings: With SD model, causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagram are constructed, as well as some experiments and policy analysis. The research findings revealed that the increase of average shipping capacity for a vehicle will bring a decrease in congestion and CO2 emission directly and the decrease of the average fuel use for a vehicle can help with the reduction of CO2 emission directly. Both the two parameters are the indirect causes of logistics demand dynamics in Beijing. Originality/value: Researches of this paper are aiming at handling logistics demand dynamics of Beijing, problems belonging to the area of complex systems, with SD model, where, to the best of our knowledge, no significant research has been done.