A Theorem on the Limit-Properties of Structural Change and some Implications

Recent growth literature studies structural change in relatively specific three-sector growth models with a focus on the agriculture-manufacturing-services structure. In this paper we take another approach for studying this structural change. By using only few axioms on the properties of structural change trajectories and some mathematical theorems on the limit-properties of trajectories in the plane, we show that structural change in a three-sector framework is a relatively simple process: it is either transitory or cyclical unless there are some “exogenous” driving forces. We elaborate the implications of this result for the structural change modelling literature and topics for further research.