Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting p

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Garcia-Saltos, Roberto
Other Persons:	Laxton, Douglas (contributor) ; Andrle, Michal (contributor) ; Munandar, Haris (contributor) ; Freedman, Charles (contributor) ; Hermawan, Danny (contributor)
Publisher:	Washington : International Monetary Fund
Subject:	Indonesien \| Indonesia \| Bayes-Statistik \| Bayesian inference \| Entwicklung \| Economic development \| Makroökonomik \| Macroeconomics

Extent:	Online-Ressource (59 p)
Series:	IMF Working Papers IMF working paper ; WP/09/253
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Contents; I. Introduction; A. Background; B. A Brief Outline of Indonesian Economic Developments Over The Sample Period; II. Benchmark Model; A. Background; B. The Specification of The Model; B.1 Observable variables and data definitions; B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions; B.3 Behavorial equations; B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances; III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. Model Specication Incorporating the US Bank Lending TighteningVariable; IV. Modifications of the Model for the Indonesian Economy V. Confronting the Model with the DataA. Bayesian Estimation; B. Results; B.1 Estimates of coeficients; B.2 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlations; B.3 RMSEs; B.4 Impulse response functions; VI. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix: GPM Data Definitions; Figures; 1. Indonesia - Historical Data [1]; 2. Indonesia - Historical Data [2]; 3. Indonesia - Historical Data [3]; 4. Comparison CDS Emerging Countries; Tables; 1. Results from Posterior Maximization; 5. Indonesia Historical Inflation Graph 2. Results from Posterior Parameters (standard deviation of structural shocks)3. Results from Posterior Parameters (correlation of structural shocks); 4. Root Mean Squared Errors; 6. Domestic Demand Shock; 7. Domestic Price Shock; 8. Domestic Interest Rate Shock; 9. Domestic Real Exchange Rate Shock; 10. Shock to the Domestic Target Rate of Inflation; 11. Demand Shock in the US; 12. BLT Shock in the US
ISBN:	978-1-4519-4171-5 ; 978-1-4527-5207-5 ; 978-1-4519-4171-5
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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