Advanced Methodologies for Power System Security and Vulnerability Analysis

Nowadays, with the rapid expansion of increasing utilization of renewable energy sources, power grid is evolving into a much complex man-made system in the technological age. Under the new circumstances, traditional methodologies for power system security analysis are facing a serious challenge. For the past decade, many countries have experienced large blackouts, which expose potential problems of current models and methodologies in power industry. On the other hand, since the 9.11 event and frequent suicide bombing attacks in some countries, terrorism has become a major threat for national security. With the extensive growth of terrorism activities, power system, the significant critical infrastructure, probably becomes the target of terrorists. If this happens, the impact is dramatically severe and may yield more frequent blackouts. This Ph.D. thesis aims at developing some advanced models and methodologies for exploring the vulnerability of power system and protecting it against potential terrorism threat. The dissertation mainly consists of the following four parts. (1)Complex network theory based power system security and vulnerability analysis methodologies are introduced. Mathematically, an interconnected complex power grid can be described as a complex network of nodes connected by edges. Generally speaking, topology parameters of network structure include important information of the structure. That is to say, some critical nodes and lines can have significant impact on large-scale blackouts. The thesis will present a new methodology to recognize those critical nodes and lines in power grids. (2)Complex system theory based power grid security and vulnerability analysis methodologies are presented. Power grid is a complex dynamic evolutionary system over years with continuous expansion so as to underpin the ongoing increase of power demand. Some properties of complex systems may have important relationship with large-scale blackouts. In other words, there may be some stages of evolutionary power systems that would be more likely to cause large blackouts. The thesis will investigate the relationship to identify those critical stages of power grids. (3)Game theory is applied to methodologies for power system security and vulnerability analysis. Terrorists are often considered as fully intelligent and strategic actors who can even hire scientists and power engineers to seek the vulnerability of power systems and then launch a vital attack. Game theory does treat actors as fully strategic players and has been successfully applied to many disciplines including economics, political science and military. The thesis will present new models and analysis methods for protecting power systems under terrorism attacks. (4)Cyber security technology is considered in power system security and vulnerability analysis. It is known that information technology plays an import role in today and next generation grid. In this situation, cyber security should be an important issue. If it is vulnerable to malicious threats such as hackers and cyber-terrorists, power grid will not reach its full capabilities. The thesis will present an initial framework to reduce the vulnerability of power grid against potential cyber attack.