Advances in multicriteria decision support methods for evaluating development scenarios : an application to Thailand

Rational decision-making requires an assessment of all pros and cons of choice possibilities, including non-market effects such as environmental and spatial externalities. In the past decades various decision support and evaluation methods have been developed in which a market evaluation played a prominent role. Gradually, also a variety of adjusted multidimensional evaluation methods has been developed. These methods aim to investigate and evaluate all relevant impacts of a choice set on the basis of a multitude of relevant policy criteria (so-called multicriteria methods). This paper aims to offer a new perspective for assessing sustainable development strategies at the regional level. This framework is based on a blend of two types of approaches, viz. Regime Analysis (an advanced pair-wise comparison method for discrete choice options) and the Flag Model (based on critical threshold value analysis of outcomes of choice options). By means of this triangular framework an empirical case study is undertaken for the Songkhla/Hat Yai area in southern Thailand. Based on a multidimensional indicator system for sustainable development, a comprehensive qualitative community impact assessment system and the above mentioned compound evaluation framework, three distinct policy scenarios are systematically evaluated using a combination of the critical threshold value approach (the Flag Model) and the Regime Analysis. The paper is concluded with a few