An alternative method to produce prices received estimates.

The United States Department of Agriculture has issued statistics on prices received by farmers since 1866. Beginning in 1924, prices received were collected as of the middle of the month instead of the first of the month. In this research analysis both univariate and transfer function Box-Jenkins time series modeling techniques are applied to nine prices received series: four national crop price series, four national livestock price series, and the Wisconsin-Minnesota manufacturing milk price series. When a Box-Jenkins transfer function forecast is composited with the preliminary midmonth price survey estimate, midmonth price estimates are generated that are more reliable than the current preliminary survey estimate alone. We recommend that the Agency adopt this composite forecasting method, that uses time series analysis and current National Agricultural statistics service (NASS) survey data, to estimate all national midmonth prices.