An analysis of accelerated vehicle retirement programs using a discrete choice personal vehicle model

This paper introduces a methodology to analyze the costs and effects of a large-scale light-duty vehicle retirement program, such as the one scheduled for the Los Angeles region beginning in 1999. This methodology allows, for a given number of vehicle retirements, estimates of: the bounty required, the number of retired vehicles that would be replaced, the net effect on vehicle miles traveled and fuel use, the reduction in emissions, and the welfare effects by income level. The paper then presents the results from simulations of two programs in the Los Angeles region in place from 1999 to 2010. It is shown that a program targeting 20-yr and older vehicles is likely to be more cost-effective and have less of an impact on used car prices than a program targeting 10-yr and older autos.