An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations

CGE models are widely used tools for economic assessments of trade policy changes. However, overall confidence in their results tends to be low. We employ the methodological framework of meta-analysis in order to approach a quantitative comparison of CGE-based simulation results. Therefore, we compile a dataset of twelve recent Doha simulations and fit a linear regression model that explains the variance between simulation results on the regional level as a function of various modeling characteristics. The estimates are broadly in range with documented qualitative knowledge about modeling assumptions. The size of the sample limits general conclusions; however, an ongoing research project will extend the approach to a larger sample.