An Empirical Analysis of Shanghai Pension System Sustainable Development Methods

Using social security actuarial theory and Shanghai pension data, this paper studies and evaluates quantitatively population importing, postponing retirement age, economic development sustainable development policies from a new prospect. The sensitive analysis results indicate that population importing can improve the problem of aging population and pension deficit. The higher population importing proportion, the earlier pension reaches fiscal balance. Postponing retirement age can reduce the pension deficit, but pension cannot reaches fiscal balance in the long run. During the time window between 2008 and 2018, no matter the average wage grows faster or slower, economic development has negligible impact on pension deficit. It is called pension deficit 'window rigidity'