An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses

In this paper, the determinants of the Turkish trade balance are tried to be analyzed in an empirical modelling approach. For this purpose, the contemporaneous ARDL-based bounds testing has been used to examine the existence of a long run co-integration relationship between the variables of our interest. The estimation results indicate that real exchange rate depreciations improves the trade balance in a strong and significant way, that domestic real income affects the trade balance negatively, and that trade balance is strongly improved due to an increase in foreign real income. No significant effect of crude oil prices can be observed on trade balance. The error correction modeling gives results in line with the long run findings of the co-integration analysis.