An in-depth analysis of the emigration of skilled labour. Latvia

Emigrant survey data confirm a substantial university diploma drain from Latvia to various EU/EFTA destinations during 2000-2014. The share of tertiary-educated among emigrants further increased during their stay in the host countries, reaching, by 2014, 45 %. The share of university graduates among Latvian emigrants in each of the destinations under inspection was higher than among their age peers in Latvia. By 2014, two out of five highly educated Latvian nationals (or former nationals) aged under 25 and over one-third of their highly educated compatriots aged 25-34 left Latvia between 2000 and 2014. Both overall and in each age group, highly educated people were more likely to emigrate than their medium-educated counterparts. During (and, except for the UK, also after) the crisis, diploma drain and brain drain from Latvia were more intensive than before, reflecting a rise of general disappointment and non-economic reasons for emigration among the highly educated and the future-oriented. Those not motivated by economic push factors account for the largest part of the increase in the number of highly educated emigrants during the post-crisis periods.The loss of skilled labour caused by emigration from Latvia is largely permanent. Probability to return within five years falls with completed education level among all emigrants and with study level among tertiary students abroad. Highly educated emigrants are overrepresented in Science, Mathematics, IT, and Medicine, on one hand, and in Humanities and Arts on the other. The post-crisis skilled emigrants feature a larger incidence of overqualification and other types of brain waste, but the incidence of brain waste varies significantly across education levels and fields of study and across destination countries. High-educated graduates of Sciences, Mathematics, IT, and Health feature the lowest over-qualification and skill underutilization rates. The paper provides evidence that emigration has contributed to a shortage of high- and medium-skilled professionals ...