AN OPERATIONAL APPROACH FOR EVALUATING INVESTMENT RISK: AN APPLICATION TO THE NO-TILL TRANSITION

This study analyses short and long term safety first business risk associated with twenty six no-till transition strategies across four types of farms in eastern Washington. Risk of transition failure generated from risk averse criteria are also contrasted with a risk neutral criterion. Results revealed (1) that speeds of adoption have a larger effect than drill acquisition sequences in successful transition, (2) high equity farm have higher chance of success, and (3) slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill is preferred until yield penalty is eliminated.