An optimal threshold for over-indebtedness: a study on the discrepancy between subjective and objective debt burdens

Purpose The study aims to explore the discrepancy between the subjective and objective debt burdens across various household socio-demographic and debt characteristics. Additionally, it seeks to establish an optimal debt service-to-income ratio (DSTI) threshold for identifying over-indebtedness. Design/methodology/approach This study utilized a sample of 1,004 respondents from a nationwide survey conducted among Polish indebted households. A discrepancy ratio (DR) measure was proposed to evaluate the divergence between subjective and objective over-indebtedness. Binary logistic regression was employed to estimate the probability of being subjectively and objectively over-indebted, as well as the discrepancy between the two measures of over-indebtedness. The study also employed numerical simulations to determine the optimal DSTI threshold for identifying over-indebted households in general and based on their socio-economic characteristics. Findings The study established a debt service-to-income ratio (DSTI) threshold of 20% to minimize the discrepancy between subjective and objective debt burden, which is lower than thresholds found in other studies aimed at identifying over-indebted households. Age, number of loans, self-perceived needs satisfaction and type of debt were identified as significant socio-economic and debt-related determinants of over-indebtedness. Household socio-economic and debt-related characteristics significantly influence the threshold for identifying over-indebtedness using DSTI. It can vary widely, ranging from as low as 11% for well-educated women with multiple loan commitments to 43.7% for young males with vocational education, high incomes and originating from households with four or more members. Originality/value The paper proposes a more comprehensive approach to debt burden analysis by introducing a new methodology for determining a debt service-to-income (DSTI) threshold that could serve as a measure of over-indebtedness based on the discrepancy between subjective and objective over-indebtedness. It also emphasizes the significance of socio-economic and debt-related factors in evaluating subjective and objective over-indebtedness.