Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Riil Terhadap Trade Flows Provinsi Sumatera Utara (Kondisi Marshall – Lerner Dan Fenomena J-Curve)

The paper is testing the Marshall-Lerner Condition and the J-curve phenomenon on the North Sumatera trade. We apply the panel regression model and analyze the impact of the real depreciation of Rupiah on the trade performance, both in the short run and the long run.The study indicates the insignificant of the Rupiah real depreciation to boost the export performance in the short run. When the time horizon is long enough, the increase of the export caused by depreciation, will offset the increase of the import, hence in the long run the real depreciation of Rupiah may significantly increase the trade performance, but still in small number. The result of the study show depreciation of Rupiah real exchange rate has boosted current account in the long run, where the elasticity of real effective exchange rete was 2,86 greather than 1. The implication is clear for the policy maker; if the aim of the policy is to boost the trade performance, then the exchange rate policy should not be an alternative, rather using policy to increase the productivity, efficiency, product quality management, loose tax policy and the creation of the bussiness climate. This includes the industrial re-structuring to lower the import dependences.