Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

The model SCIARA, based on the “Cellular Automata” paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows. The possible fields of intervention are: [(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk; [(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution; [(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation. A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption. The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999