Analysing the Economic Impacts of a Plant Disease Incursion Using a General Equilibrium Approach

This study uses a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the micro- and macroeconomic effects of a hypothetical disease outbreak. The extent of the incursion, the impact of the disease on plant yields, the response of buyers, the costs of eradication and the time path of the scenario contribute to outcomes at the industry, regional, state and national levels. We also decompose the contribution of these individual direct effects to the overall impact of the disease. This may provide some guidance as to areas for priority in attempting to eradicate or minimise the impacts of a disease.