ANALYZING TENURE ARRANGEMENTS AND CROP ROTATIONS USING FARM SIMULATION AND PROBIT ANALYSIS

Whole farm simulation analysis and econometric techniques are employed in an analysis of crop rotations and tenure arrangement strategies. The FLIPSIM model is used to analyze a representative Texas Upper Gulf Coast rice and soybean farm. Probit analysis is then used to determine the impact of net cash farm income, land tenure, and crop rotation on probability of survival. Results suggest that, although the simulation model is useful in providing information on the effect at the farm level of following the different strategies, probit results provide greater understanding into the returns and risk inherent to each strategy.