Analyzing the Effect of Massachusetts' ET Choices Program on the State's Afdc-Basic Caseload

At the center of the JOBS program of the Family Support Act is the placement of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) recipients into work-related activities. Massachusetts' Em ployment and Training (ET) Choices Program, which predates JOBS, is a work incentive (WIN) demonstration based on the premise that AFDC recipients will choose work over welfare if presented with genuine opportunities for economic improvement. In this study, models of the Massachusetts AFDC-Basic caseload are developed to estimate what the caseload would have been in the absence of the ET Choices Program. The results indicate that ET Choices successfully reduced the basic caseload over its first 18 months of operation, but had little effect during the second half of the 3-year evaluation period.