Application of Stochastic Process & Cellular Automata Integrated to GIS for Land Monitoring : Coastal Chaouia, Morocco

In recent decades, Morocco has experienced an expansion of agriculture, industrialization and urbanization, the quality of several natural resources has deteriorated by the inconveniences of this expansion. Groundwater is among the natural resources affected by this development. This study aims to prevent groundwater pollution in one of largest degraded aquifers in Morocco, which is coastal Chaouia aquifer. The purpose of this study is to mitigate the effects of agricultural expansion and pollution from agricultural activities. Indeed, Markov process for stochastic modeling and cellular automata are integrated into GIS. As a result, forecast maps for 2011 and 2019 were developed. compatibility with projected land use maps gave a similarity rate of 89.22% for 2011 map and 82.12% for 2019 map. this great success made it possible to create a forecast map for 2027 and 2035. Analysis of land use maps classified amongst them showed that agricultural area class dominated other classes used. agricultural expansion was explained by population growth in Morocco, and in world, which requires an increase in food needs. forests were deteriorated by several causes, on one hand climate change, and on another hand agricultural practice