Applied Rough Set Logics for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Stock Index Volatility Projection

The main purpose of this paper is to advocate a rule-based forecasting technique for anticipating stock index volatility. This paper intends to set up a stock index indicators projection prototype by using a multiple criteria decision making model consisting of the cluster analysis (CA) technique and Rough Set Theory (RST) to select the important attributes and forecast TSEC Capitalization Weighted Stock Index. The projection prototype was then released to forecast the stock index in the first half of 2009 with an accuracy of 66.67%. The results point out that the decision rules were authenticated to employ in forecasting the stock index volatility appropriately.