Are Experts’ Probabilistic Forecasts Similar to the NBP Projections?

We assess similiarity of the Polish central bank's forecasts published in Inflation Reports and economic experts' forecasts (from NBP Survey of Professional Forecasts), an important issue in monetary policy. Contrary to other studies which use point forecast, we are interested in comparing whole forecasts' distributions. We are especially interested whether the SPF experts mirror the NBP projections. For this purpose, we propose employing methods based on distance between distributions. Unfortunately, substantial heterogenity of forecasts, as well as short and atypical period analyzed, limit drawing firm conclusions with this respect