Are Oil Price Forecasters Finally Right? Regressive Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems

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Year of publication:	2016
Authors:	Reitz, Stefan
Other Persons:	Rülke, Jan-Christoph (contributor) ; Stadtmann, Georg (contributor)
Publisher:	[2016]: [S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Ölpreis \| Oil price \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Welt \| World \| Prognose \| Forecast \| Experten \| Experts

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (48 p)
Series:	Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper ; No. 2009,32
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments 2009 erstellt
Other identifiers:	10.2139/ssrn.2785362 [DOI]
Classification:	F31 - Foreign Exchange ; D84 - Expectations; Speculations ; C33 - Models with Panel Data
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991103