Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random-walk benchmark. However, it seems that this result might be biased due to peso problems.

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Year of publication:	2009-06-05
Authors:	Reitz, Stefan ; Ruelke, Jan ; Stadtmann, Georg

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Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Reitz, Stefan and Ruelke, Jan and Stadtmann, Georg (2009): Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price.
Classification:	D84 - Expectations; Speculations
Source:	BASE

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217096