Are Recoveries All the Same : GDP and TFP?

Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as “L-shaped” or “U-shaped,” with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U-shaped recovery for post-War NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U-shaped but more recent recessions have been L-shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption,investment, and labor hours, with shapes suggested by nondurable consumption and employment being less well identified. Perhaps surprisingly, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions